Battle Royal

The best news from yesterday's French elections is the sharp repudiation of Jean- Marie Le Pen and his politics of fear and hatred. At 10.4 percent of the first-round vote, Le Pen fell below his surprise second-place finish in the 2002 first-round when he topped the leading Leftist Lionel Jospin with 16.7 percent of the vote. That was a moment of extreme national embarrassment for many thinking French, which points to one cause of yesterday's staggering 85 percent voter turnout.

Now it's down to Sarko and Sego. Nicolas Sarkozy will pick up some of Le Pen's "fear and hatred" vote, plying his own brand of more subtle xenophobia. Segolene Royal will capture a substantial slice of Centrist Francois Bayrou's first-round vote. Sego will also be victim of lingering resistance among some voters to elect a woman, something voters everywhere rarely admit to pollsters.

There is reason to worry about Sarkozy's impulsive, swaggering archconservatism, but Royal has given the French little reason to vote for her. Some say, and I agree, that it would be wonderful to elect a woman. However, maybe this particular woman lacks the gravitas to get the job done. If forced to choose, I prefer Sego. However, my second-round prediction is that Sarko beats her by seven percentage points. People just love the tough-guy talk, especially now as France seeks to bolster its global reputation and get back in the game.