It is not easy to decipher the meaning of Taro Aso’s election as Japanese Prime Minister last week. One thing is virtually certain. The former foreign minister and first-ever Catholic to lead Japan will call for snap elections very soon. It will be a high-stakes gamble, however, since fatigue with Aso’s Liberal Democratic Party could favor the Democratic Party of Japan led by Ichiro Ozawa.
In the long term, however, Aso’s election may mean very little on the world or regional stage as Japan continues through a less muscular period under the weight of a greatly enfeebled economy. It will be a weak coalition government with relatively few policy innovations. Still, some there are some downside concerns that are worth watching. First, Aso is widely thought to have a big mouth. His fiery conservative rhetoric can be as “colorful” as it is unpredictable, especially when directed at China. As with a United States weighed down these days by financial crises, loose lips can and will sink economic ships of state.
Furthermore, Japan suffers from a mounting demographic challenge that could fuel acrimony over the nation’s single biggest taboo subject – immigration. Japan has both an aging population and a declining birth rate, so it grows increasingly more reliant on legal and illegal immigration to deliver the services its people demand and won’t perform for themselves. Sound familiar? Most of these immigrants are Chinese. So the combination of the rhetoric of anti-Chinese posturing and the reality of Chinese immigrant-dependency could make for a disturbing and even destabilizing road ahead for Tokyo.
p.s. Atlantic Monthly's Jack Beatty said it well last week on Tom Ashbrook's On Point broadcast. "Our (the U.S.) economy can no longer handle our politics."
Images from Tokyo's Grand Aki-Basho Sumo Championships, a Shinto religious procession, and the fabled Tsukiji Fish Market.
In the long term, however, Aso’s election may mean very little on the world or regional stage as Japan continues through a less muscular period under the weight of a greatly enfeebled economy. It will be a weak coalition government with relatively few policy innovations. Still, some there are some downside concerns that are worth watching. First, Aso is widely thought to have a big mouth. His fiery conservative rhetoric can be as “colorful” as it is unpredictable, especially when directed at China. As with a United States weighed down these days by financial crises, loose lips can and will sink economic ships of state.
Furthermore, Japan suffers from a mounting demographic challenge that could fuel acrimony over the nation’s single biggest taboo subject – immigration. Japan has both an aging population and a declining birth rate, so it grows increasingly more reliant on legal and illegal immigration to deliver the services its people demand and won’t perform for themselves. Sound familiar? Most of these immigrants are Chinese. So the combination of the rhetoric of anti-Chinese posturing and the reality of Chinese immigrant-dependency could make for a disturbing and even destabilizing road ahead for Tokyo.
p.s. Atlantic Monthly's Jack Beatty said it well last week on Tom Ashbrook's On Point broadcast. "Our (the U.S.) economy can no longer handle our politics."
Images from Tokyo's Grand Aki-Basho Sumo Championships, a Shinto religious procession, and the fabled Tsukiji Fish Market.