Just completed a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) briefing on Russia, Policy, Power and Public Health moderated by The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser.
Thomas Graham (CFR Distinguished Fellow) suggested that Coronavirus could be the biggest test for President Putin over his 20-year reign.
The pandemic will certainly deal a blow to Putin’s President-for-life aspirations. He continues to set his sights on succeeding himself in 2024. As Stephen Sestanovich (CFR Kennan Senior Fellow) reminded us, the state of the Russian economy was already dire before the virus struck.
Median income has been down five years now. Economic diversification and foreign investment have stalled. Of course, Moscow’s reliance on old energy is severely hurting it. Global economic sanctions in response to Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere are taking their toll. As a result, Russia will be hit very hard by the global recession. Plus, Putin’s popularity had already eroded considerably due to vast concerns about his recent welfare reforms.
Thomas Graham indicated that Putin’s response to Coronavirus was exceptionally poor. Russia acted as though it was exempt from the virus in the early days. The number of Coronavirus cases is increasing significantly in recent weeks, however, even though Putin will attempt to lowball the real numbers. As thin-skinned autocrats like to do, Putin assured Russians that the virus was well under control. When it clearly was not under control - or even understood - he delegated responsibility for fighting it to others such as the Moscow Mayor. Sound familiar? Weakness copies weakness. The playbooks are always the same.
What’s the U.S. policy to help leverage this situation? Well, put simply, there is no consistent strategic policy.
What are the odds that Putin’s entrenched kleptocracy will end any time soon? This seems highly unlikely until and unless sufficient numbers of oligarchs experience enough economic pain to try to move against him. After all, he can only kill so many of them, right? It’s going to be a very difficult several years for Putin, but he will survive in the end.
Thomas Graham (CFR Distinguished Fellow) suggested that Coronavirus could be the biggest test for President Putin over his 20-year reign.
The pandemic will certainly deal a blow to Putin’s President-for-life aspirations. He continues to set his sights on succeeding himself in 2024. As Stephen Sestanovich (CFR Kennan Senior Fellow) reminded us, the state of the Russian economy was already dire before the virus struck.
Median income has been down five years now. Economic diversification and foreign investment have stalled. Of course, Moscow’s reliance on old energy is severely hurting it. Global economic sanctions in response to Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere are taking their toll. As a result, Russia will be hit very hard by the global recession. Plus, Putin’s popularity had already eroded considerably due to vast concerns about his recent welfare reforms.
Thomas Graham indicated that Putin’s response to Coronavirus was exceptionally poor. Russia acted as though it was exempt from the virus in the early days. The number of Coronavirus cases is increasing significantly in recent weeks, however, even though Putin will attempt to lowball the real numbers. As thin-skinned autocrats like to do, Putin assured Russians that the virus was well under control. When it clearly was not under control - or even understood - he delegated responsibility for fighting it to others such as the Moscow Mayor. Sound familiar? Weakness copies weakness. The playbooks are always the same.
What’s the U.S. policy to help leverage this situation? Well, put simply, there is no consistent strategic policy.
What are the odds that Putin’s entrenched kleptocracy will end any time soon? This seems highly unlikely until and unless sufficient numbers of oligarchs experience enough economic pain to try to move against him. After all, he can only kill so many of them, right? It’s going to be a very difficult several years for Putin, but he will survive in the end.
Image courtesy of Chatham House.