“Will the Taliban show themselves capable of imaginative and constructive politics? That question is open.” So said Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani from Kabul this morning in Zoom remarks to a group of us at the Council on Foreign Relations. With all due respect, Mr. President, the answer is no. Don't bet on it. The Taliban will not exhibit imaginative and constructive politics in any sustainable way.
That’s too bad, since we are at a delicate moment for Afghanistan and for our men and women in uniform serving there. The U.S.-educated Ghani calls it an “historic threshold.” He has authorized the release of over 5,000 Taliban prisoners to, in his words, “demonstrate our conviction to peace and stability in Afghanistan."
The key question is whether Ghani will ever be able to achieve a sustainable ceasefire and create the necessary conditions for peace talks. This is a gambit of considerable proportions for his nation, the region, and the United States. President Ghani underscored the seriousness of his intent in saying that, “Our society has immense skills in conflict resolution,” to say the least, and that “we have built sufficient capital internally as a nation.”
What role can the U.S. and others outside the region play in addition, of course, to the presence of 8,500 of our own servicemen and women? Ghani said that on the positive side of the ledger are numerous projects supporting regional connectivity such as new “transportation and energy corridors.” The proposed $10 billion TAPI (Turkmenistan- Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) natural gas pipeline is one major case in point.
On the negative side, however, Ghani warned of a return to “atavistic habits,” in the language of the cultural anthropologist that he is. Outside agitation and the ever-present risk of internal or foreign-born terrorism is always a concern that “threatens to pull us apart,” Ghani said, and that takes us right back to the Taliban and their surrogates.
Screen image from today's session.