And we dare talk about resilience in U.S. organizational-development circles. Ha! How about Ukrainian resilience? As always, it's a matter of perspective.
We heard from Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine’s Prime Minister from 2014 to 2016, at the Council on Foreign Relations this morning. He came to us live from a Ukraine under siege by the deranged bastard, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
He reiterated what we all know at this point. “Putin didn’t expect two things. First, the staunch resolve of the Ukrainian people and, second, real unity among the U.S., E.U. and the Free World.” Yatsenyuk rightly labeled Putin a “war criminal,” adding that “he has to sit behind bars at the International Criminal Court.” That will never happen, but there’s always hope.
The former Prime Minister, a lawyer and economist born in southwestern Ukraine, said that “Putin and his cronies miscalculated. He was convinced his military would take over Ukraine in 96 hours. He didn’t expect this resolve and resistance from our military and from our people.” It’s very interesting, and not uncommon when applied to little, insecure autocrats like Putin, that Prime Minister Yatsenyuk added, “He (Putin) always makes this kind of mistake. He underestimates human resolve.” That’s when he called Putin “the Hitler of this century.”
When he was asked about the likelihood that Russian forces will eventually overwhelm Kyiv and brave Ukrainians elsewhere in their country, Yatsenyuk would have none of it. He rightly said he would not encourage such speculation since it plays into the enemy’s hands. He turned the conversation instead to the question of how the West can be of even greater help to Ukraine, offering four concrete examples:
1. Providing lethal weapons such as fighter jets, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, and antiaircraft systems. Some of these weapons are on route to Ukraine, but it will not be enough or soon enough.
2. Making Ukraine a member of the European Union. Yes, as soon as possible. Left to its own devices, the Union will take 10 years to admit Ukraine. Waive the bureaucracy. Do it now even if it’s for a temporarily vanquished government of Ukraine in exile.
3. Enacting a complete ban of importation of Russian oil and gas which, according to Yatsenyuk, generated $235 billion in revenue for Putin’s kleptocracy last year. America should be ready, willing, and able to forego the 7-10 percent reliance we have on Soviet, er, Russian energy exports. To hell with the predictable, reactionary complainers who will blame high prices at the gas pump on President Biden. Sacrifices are needed in the name of democracy and global security. Europe is a different story, however. This decision will not work in the long run there because Europe relies on Russia for 40-50 percent of its energy needs and they will eventually capitulate on this subject. Yatsenyuk reminded us, however, that it’s early March and not early December. Spring is coming and energy demand for heating buildings will obviously decline.
I support all three of these measures. I struggle mightily, however with Yatsenyuk’s fourth prescription – creating a no-fly zone (NFZ) over Ukrainian airspace. This is a recipe for World War III. Armchair warriors in the chattering classes so blithely call for taking this action without understanding what a NFZ entails. This isn’t Iraq, Bosnia, or Libya. Establishing a NFZ in Ukraine and against Russia would put U.S. and other NATO aircraft in direct confrontation with Russia. It could predictably lead to firing on Russian surface-to-air installations – located in Russia! It would give Putin a nationalistic rallying cry when Americans start killing Russians and bombing Russian positions.
The situation in Ukraine is about
to worsen exponentially. Putin will massacre innocent civilians by the thousands in coming weeks and months. The understandable calls for doing even
more will echo throughout the rest of the world. Yet it’s difficult to imagine
how enacting a NFZ would not just make matters that much worse.
Yatsenyuk ended by saying that, “Understanding
Putin is not a matter of history or ideology. It’s a matter of psychiatry." It so often is with these sclerotic, fascist, old men who cannot stand to live in today’s pluralistic world.
Former Ukraine Prime Minister Yatsenyuk.