Iran launched missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar this afternoon, all of which were intercepted. This came immediately after we were told by Council on Foreign Relations experts in a meeting that, in one person’s words, “Iran is not in a position to retaliate right now” though, after “the initial paralysis” they’ll figure out how and when to do so. Well, that time appears to be now, even if Iran assumed their missiles would be intercepted.
Armchair quarterbacks abound in these situations, me
included. That stated, I would not have chosen to be Bibi Netanyahu’s lapdog in
bombing Iran. It’s very clear the U.S. strikes were extremely well done, tactically
and operationally. As is usually the case, however, the consequences at the strategic
level present a dangerous mix of certain peril and uncertain outcomes.
So where are we and how did we get here?
1. Netanyahu will continue to wage war to delay further legal proceedings against him and to remain unresponsive to legitimate concerns Israelis have about intelligence and operational failures at the time of Hamas’ terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023. He also needs to answer for his complicity with Hamas in the first place.
2. The current U.S. president has apparently thought highly of Israel’s air strikes on Iran, which empowered Netanyahu to drag him along for the ride.
3. We wouldn’t be here if the current U.S. president had not capriciously exited the painstakingly negotiated 2015 Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) between Iran and the P5+1 nations including China and Russia. All experts agree that while Iran is never to be trusted, they were complying with JPOA stipulations designed to deter their nuclear program according to IAEA inspectors and others. One analyst said today that while the U.S. bombings will set Iran back several years or more, the JPOA had been much more effective at doing so. The current U.S. president said upon exiting JPOA that it was a "bad deal" (simply because it was Obama’s deal, of course) and that he would negotiate a better one. He never even tried and, as a result, the Iranians moved forward with development of their nuclear program.
4. The U.S. and Israeli bombings will likely embolden Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Indeed, while focusing on destroying their capacity to build such weaponry, nobody in the U.S., Israel, or Europe seems to know where Iran is hiding the 400kg of enriched uranium it already possesses. That’s enough to manufacture 9-10 nuclear bombs and its undoubtedly nowhere near the bombing sites of Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz.
5. Perhaps most frighteningly of all, the U.S. has since February been defunding and amateurizing its counterterrorism efforts just as Iran now predictably increases the threat and reality of vengeance. For example, no serious person can be comforted by the fact that a 22-year-old landscaper and grocery clerk now heads the Department of Homeland Security’s Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships, among this nation’s most important counterterrorism resources. Iran will at minimum unleash terrorist and cyber attacks in coming months. We must do better than this.
We desperately need smarter, more sober adults managing these situations from top to bottom and less “Midnight Hammer” macho posturing. The stakes could not be higher.
Image courtesy of CNN.