"How do you account for your own biases" in making big decisions? So asked former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at yesterday's David A. Morse Lecture at the Council on Foreign Relations. Clinton was joined by Dean Karen Yarhi-Milo, with whom she teaches a popular course on decision making at Columbia University, as well as former U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan.
Their discussion surfaced at least four keys to effective decision making:
1. Question Your Biases: Yes, the first lesson is to interrogate your own biases. Our experiences guide us in making decisions, but they can also blind us. As a New York Senator in the aftermath of 9-11, Clinton spoke of her deep desire to kill Osama bin Laden. As a key member of President Obama's team that informed the ultimately successful decision to kill bin Laden, she told attendees that she had to overcome the fury and revenge instincts that created "get bin Laden at all costs" blind spots. "I had to be aware of my bias toward action," she said. On the other hand, Obama's Defense Secretary Bob Gates lived through President Carter's disastrous Desert One hostage-rescue operation outside of Tehran in 1980 as a young CIA official. He was understandably more concerned about what could go wrong with the bin Laden raid. Questioning your biases is foundational to questioning all your assumptions in a decision-making context.
2. Ask Good Questions: This is an art form. It starts with asking the right questions, of course. These are questions designed to seek knowledge and not just to display it, often clumsily. Equally important is asking questions in an appropriate manner and without prosecutorial zeal that can otherwise put people on the defensive. The wellspring of great questions originates from having the right people in the room, too.
3. Engender Robust Debate: Avoid groupthink. Understand that weak leaders want only sycophants in the room who slavishly agree with everything the say and don't dare question them. In stark comparison, great leaders encourage robust debate. They are strong enough to understand the importance of devil's advocacy and the need to identify the weak links in any decision including its implementation, interpretation, and aftermath.
4. Put Yourself in Their Shoes: When assessing the intentions and capabilities of a competitor, adversary, or enemy, it's imperative to put yourself in their shoes. Clinton asked, "Why do we keep getting surprised by our adversary's behavior? Why do we get it wrong?" One clear reason is an individual and collective inability and unwillingness to see things from the other side. Sullivan said about Russian leader Putin, "So much of what animates him is being this tough kid from Leningrad" coupled with "his sense of loss and grievance" over the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin wants to recreate some version of Soviet supremacy, which explains his decision to invade Ukraine without legitimate justification and his willingness to see his troops slaughtered and his economy decimated in the process.
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