New York -
“It’s the most consequential relationship in the world.” That’s how U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns characterized the tenuous, high-stakes nature of affairs between Washington and Beijing at the Council on Foreign Relations here this week.
Make no mistake. China is our primary global competitor. Furthermore, though Burns would and should never say this, China is our enemy, too. Let’s just not be clumsy and act in ways that make this a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beijing is never to be trusted, of course. Unlike Putin's Russia, however, China’s economy and military are formidable, despite Beijing’s current economic malaise. The U.S. economy is in better shape than China and, for that matter, much of the rest of the world. Gone are the days just several years ago when China proclaimed the West was sinking and the East was rising.
Still, because of China’s capabilities and long-term trajectory, we have no choice but to engage them and define areas for mutual agreement and cooperation. That’s what Burns and his team are doing and there is both urgency and momentum behind their work. All parties understand that war in the Taiwan Straits, for example, through which 50 percent of the world’s container ships transit, is in nobody’s economic interests.
Burns inherited a mess when he became ambassador in the spring of last year. The relationship was in deep freeze and, especially alarming, military-to-military direct communication was moribund. “The relationship was too unstable,” Burns offered.
The recent Biden-Xi summit in San Francisco with four specific, follow-up agreements has improved bilateral communication and helped shape areas for possible cooperation, such as with fentanyl. Of course, the U.S. will need to be dogged in ensuring that China actually fulfills its agreements. Visits to China over recent months by Secretaries Blinken, Yellen, Raimomdo, and Kerry have also helped thaw the relationship. And yes, China's economic woes have provided considerable incentive for it to come to the table.
Managing the China relationship requires a delicate balancing act, forged in strength but adept at nuance and flexibility. It’s ready made for a diplomat of Burns enormous experience, expertise, and character. It reminds us of the existential need to keep members of the Insane Clown Posse as far away as possible from this China relationship - and everything else. Adults only, please.
