Russia "is never as weak or as strong as they seem." That's what Russia specialist and former National Security Council member Fiona Hill told us at a Council on Foreign Relations panel this week. The U.S. has been skilled at playing both hands, making Russia appear "10 feet tall" during the Cold War in order to spur defense spending and treating Moscow as a lowly, impoverished nation upon the Soviet demise.
Hill added that, "Russia always wants a seat at the table, but then kicks us under the table" once they get there. She joined other panelists in warning that any "reset" with Moscow is a highly dubious proposition, especially after four years of a U.S. Administration pandering to Russian President Putin and failing to hold him accountable for placing bounties on American troops, continuing hostilities against the Ukraine, or hacking U.S. government agencies and businesses. Yes, we're very good at imposing sanctions in response to such attacks, and they do work to some degree, but they are a crude instrument with many unintended consequences and they too often play into Putin's hands.
Stephen Sestanovich, the George Kennan Senior Fellow at the Council added that Putin has "an ideological ferocity about him that (he) hasn't seen in recent years." And why not? He's running scared, which makes him more dangerous than ever. The imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny is a serious threat to his dictatorship and kleptocracy, especially as the Russian economy continues to falter. There is no doubt that Navalny has tapped into the great frustration of the Russian people.
Russia is perilously reliant on oil and gas and the depressed prices for these commodities globally, though climbing recently, has taken a severe toll. No wonder Hill told us, "Putin sees Russia at war with the West, especially since the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine" and, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow, Putin's fueled by the reality that, "he thinks he got off easy" over the past four years.
Neither Hill, Sestanovich, nor Vershbow are sanguine about improving the bilateral relationship anytime soon. As in so many domains, President Biden certainly has his work cut out for him. Hill suggested "setting small goals" and building from there. "He needs to reassert U.S. credibility in the world's view of the relationship," Vershbow said. Arms control might represent a vehicle to bring both parties to the table but, as Vershbow added, "managing the competition may be the most we can do and then at least offer Putin a path and see whether he takes it." Don't count on it.
Image courtesy of Defense One.