The BRICS notion advanced by Goldman Sach’s Jim
O’Neill in 2001 has always been an illusion. Cute acronym aside, Brazil,
Russia, India, China and (later) South Africa have little to do with one
another in terms of their stages of economic development or growth
trajectories. In fact, the Russian economy is substantially slowing down.
Forecasters anticipate annual growth at 2-3% in coming years, a major decline
from Moscow’s previous oil-and-gas infused growth of 7-9%.
Twitter @jessicamcwade
This does not auger well for Russian social order, and President
Putin knows it. He needs oil-price
continuity at $120/barrel to deter civic unrest. Well, today’s WTI Crude Oil
price is $93/barrel. Watch for Putin to become even more ruthless in these
circumstances as, almost unimaginably, he now needs to focus on consolidating
power. Just say nyet, anyone? Thus, Russia’s top economist Sergey Guriev has
fled to Paris under mysterious circumstances. Prime Minister (and former
President and Putin crony) Medvedev is clearly on the “outs” with the boss,
too.
Putin’s behavior on Syria is especially telling. Yes, he’s arming
the Assad regime to protect the Russian naval base in Tartus there. However,
the bigger ploy is to keep Qatar out of Syria. Qatar, a substantial supporter
of the anti-Assad rebellion, rivals Russia in natural gas. Should the rebels
win, Qatar would box-out Russian interests in Syria and build its own pipeline.
Putin likely doesn’t care if Assad remains in power, an Assad-like regime
replaces him, or civil war continues in perpetuity. He just can’t afford a
Qatar-fueled rebel victory and the Qatari pipeline that will follow. It’s in
this harsh reality that neat postulations like BRICS become very untidy.Twitter @jessicamcwade